An Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz -Inaccurate Attribution!
An Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz-Inaccurate Attribution!
Summary of eRumor:
A commentary titled "An Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz" has made the rounds in forwarded emails and discussion forums.
The "Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz" commentary came from Dr. Robert Goldman, an anti-aging specialist and futurist — not the head of Mercedes-Benz.
The commentary first appeared at WorldHealth.net under the headline "Predictions in Technology and Health" in June 2016. The website is home to the American Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine (A4M), a non-profit that works toward "the advancement of technology to detect, prevent, and treat aging related disease." Goldman is a cofounder and chairman of A4M.
Goldman makes predictions about advancements in software, artificial intelligence, autonomous cars, insurance companies, real estate and electric cars. He warns that rapid innovation will cause cultural changes in the near future. Additionally, Goldman dubs the phenomenon the "4th Industrial Revolution" and he welcomes readers to "the Exponential Age."
Fast forward to early 2017, and the commentary resurfaced in forwarded emails and discussion forums. This time, however, it was attributed to the head of Daimler Benz (or Mercedes-Benz). Appearing under the headline, "Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz."
It's not clear how the head of Daimler Benz was listed as the author. It could have been a mistake. Or, it could have been done so intentionally to boost its credibility. Either way, the head of Daimler Benz is not behind these ideas.
An Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz: The Real Story
Dr. Dieter Zetsche is the head (or chairman of the board) of Daimler Benz. And Zetsche directly contradicted many of the ideas expressed in the "Interesting Talk" commentary during a shareholders meeting in May 2017.
Dr. Robert Goldman, for example, wrote that "most companies may become bankrupt" as tech companies like Tesla, Apple and Google take the revolutionary approach of building a computer on wheels. Zetsche, meanwhile, predicted that the future of the auto industry would be far more balanced:
At the moment, it appears that the future of the automotive industry will primarily be marked by opposites such as electric drive versus combustion engines, autonomous driving versus driving pleasure, vehicle ownership versus shared mobility and humans versus robots. We, however, do not view these things as contradictory. At Daimler, we are convinced that mobility will simply become even more multifaceted. It is necessary to do one thing without stopping with the other. That’s why we are strengthening both: the new and the old.
But, when it comes to ideas related to artificial intelligence, Zetsche and Goldman's ideas are much more aligned. Goldman warned that IBM's Watson technology would make human attorneys absolute. He also discussed the impact of automation on medicine and the economy. Zetsche, meanwhile, struck a similar tone:
The key to all of these future-oriented topics is the link between human and artificial intelligence. Today, the computer can already make medical diagnoses, formulate legal arguments — and bluff during poker games. The appropriate use of artificial intelligence could become an engine of growth for the economy, because it would boost productivity. Human beings could then concentrate on tasks that are beyond the abilities of artificial intelligence.
Given overlap in some of the ideas discussed, it's possible that Goldman and Zetsche's commentaries were mistakenly interchanged. Either way, Zetsche didn't write the "Interesting Talk by the Head of Daimler Benz" commentary..
Collected on: 12/12/2017
A real example of the eRumor as it has appeared on the Internet:
An interesting talk by the MD of Daimler Benz
An interesting concept of what could lay ahead.
In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon ‘et al’ are…… There have always been the 3 constants … Death, Taxes and CHANGE!
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’re not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency … Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.